Severe WX Historic April 27-May 1 2024 Midwest Storms

[Maxis_s]

Active stretch looks to continue as we enter May. CSU probs for 5/1 and long-range CFS SCP totals.

I guess it's best that we take advantage of this brief downtime that we have. This is gonna be one hell of a season if this keeps up.

 

[andyhb]

00z NAM is dangerous looking on Wednesday in SW KS and NW OK. Subtle shortwave comes through in the afternoon with 4000+ MLCAPE and amplifies the low level jet to 40+ kts yielding large hodographs. Definitely would be good for a few isolated, intense supercells.

 

[Fred Gossage]

The Plains, Midwest, and probably the Ohio Valley again will very likely stay active (if not violent) in off and on periods for May. I will caution that Dixie (especially along and north of I-20) may not necessarily be done with synoptically-driven severe threats just yet either. We're already seeing increasingly consistent signs that the upper jet doesn't necessarily shift fully to the north for the season as we head deeper into May. As the MJO comes across the Pacific and then makes that classic Phase 8-1-2 run that is favorable for active severe around mid-month, I think we'll need to tack on the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and at least the northern half of Dixie Alley for places we will need to keep an eye on for at least one or two possible threats... if nothing else, those areas being on the southern end of a threat centered farther north. This basic school of thought tracks with some of the seasonal analogs we've had for this spring, such as 1995 and 1973.

 

[Fred Gossage]

00z NAM is dangerous looking on Wednesday in SW KS and NW OK. Subtle shortwave comes through in the afternoon with 4000+ MLCAPE and amplifies the low level jet to 40+ kts yielding large hodographs. Definitely would be good for a few isolated, intense supercells.

SPC seems to be picking up what you're putting down, despite still having a SLGT Risk at the moment.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE (INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO), IN ADDITION TO
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..SYNOPSIS

IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDER.
FARTHER SOUTH, A SECONDARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MAY
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TX.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS

A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM
COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F) WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MODEST ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR, BUT VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY ABOVE 40 KT,
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORM
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH ONLY SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE, WITH INCREASING
STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES, WITH A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES INTO THE EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AIDED BY A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET.

FARTHER SOUTH, THE SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF STORM COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TX, THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN. THE MARGINAL RISK HAS
BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF TX, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.

..DEAN.. 04/29/2024

 

[pritchlaw]

Is this gonna be a record low for April tornados in Alabama?

 

[atrainguy]

I see Omaha/Lincoln are under a tornado threat again tomorrow. Much less significant of a threat, but still.

 

[atrainguy]

Sneaky small 2% tornado risk just popped up this morning here. I'm on the southwest edge of the risk area.

 

[Timhsv]

The Plains, Midwest, and probably the Ohio Valley again will very likely stay active (if not violent) in off and on periods for May. I will caution that Dixie (especially along and north of I-20) may not necessarily be done with synoptically-driven severe threats just yet either. We're already seeing increasingly consistent signs that the upper jet doesn't necessarily shift fully to the north for the season as we head deeper into May. As the MJO comes across the Pacific and then makes that classic Phase 8-1-2 run that is favorable for active severe around mid-month, I think we'll need to tack on the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and at least the northern half of Dixie Alley for places we will need to keep an eye on for at least one or two possible threats... if nothing else, those areas being on the southern end of a threat centered farther north. This basic school of thought tracks with some of the seasonal analogs we've had for this spring, such as 1995 and 1973.

This ole boy remembers May 1995

 

[Clancy]

Crazy, especially considering how quiet it's been (relatively-speaking) for parts of the Deep South.

 

[MoonBaby]

Is this gonna be a record low for April tornados in Alabama?

Shhhhh don’t bring them here.
However.. Richard Scott, a meteorologist in Tuscaloosa did point out some flags showing up for the 11th. I haven’t had time to look yet though myself.

 

[Tanner]

Crazy, especially considering how quiet it's been (relatively-speaking) for parts of the Deep South.

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one april would have been at least half as active as 2011.

 

[Clancy]

That's surprising. I would have thought at least one april would have been at least half as active as 2011.

Yeah, even though we've had a few active days I honestly am surprised the total for this month is so high!

 

[Clancy]

In addition to an active April for the States, China has had some pretty extraordinary severe weather as well, including lots of tornadoes, downburst winds and some absolutely gigantic hail.

 

[warneagle]

Supercells firing right over the same area that was affected on Friday in southeastern Iowa. First tornado warning is up.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Mesoscale discussion says continued chance for tornadic supercells in the existing watch area. Personally keeping an eye on these since I have family just to the north of the watch area.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[warneagle]

Mesoscale discussion says continued chance for tornadic supercells in the existing watch area. Personally keeping an eye on these since I have family just to the north of the watch area.

Mesoanalysis does show a local ESRH maximum in that area so yeah something to keep an eye on.

 

[WesL]

I personally hate when that happens I actually appreciate when we get videos like that because people expect to see only the bigger monsters that we have seen in the past few days. However, even the smaller ones can be dangerous. The person in the video should be recognized with a badge or some kind of reward

 

[TornadoFan]

Reed has a funnel on his feed in Westmoreland, KS

 

[TornadoFan]

On the ground!